All posts tagged with "Behaviour".
The Fed raised rates this week for the first time since 2023, and every feed has a table of what happens next. We ran all six first hikes since 1994 on free public data — US shares, gold and the STI, in Singapore dollars — with the usual outcome beside every number. The one-month dip is real; the rest is six observations.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is back at levels last seen before the global financial crisis, and the headlines say the bond market is coming for shares. So we took every month since 1954 and asked what actually happened after the 10-year yield rose. The answer is calmer than the coverage — with one condition attached, and it is not the one the headlines are watching.
It is the most reasonable-sounding plan in investing: hold the cash, wait for a pullback, buy the discount. We tested it across a hundred and fifty years of market history. The problem is not that it fails when the dip comes — it is how often the dip never comes at all, and what that costs while you wait.
